分析家Fareed Zakaria日前声称，世界上最大的两个经济体目前所面临的紧张局势，可能会引发一场贸易大战，而这将会导致中美关系的灾难性决裂！
President Barack Obama says an undervalued currency is giving Chinese companies an unfair advantage in selling products, and this week the House of Representatives passed a bill that would let the United States put tariffs on goods from China. China has retaliated against earlier trade sanctions by the United States and strongly opposes the bill passed by the House.
奥巴马总统认为，由于对人民币汇率估计不足，中国公司在销售产品的时候得以拥有不公平的竞争优势。本周众议院通过了一项针对中国商品征收特别关税的法案，中国方面对此表示要美国的贸易制裁进行反击，并强烈反对众议院通过的该项法案。
"One has to hope a lot of it is bluff because the consequences of a significant trade war between China and the United States would be very dramatic," Zakaria said. "We need the Chinese to still have enormous faith in the U.S. economy, not just to buy Treasury bills, but to maintain all the links they have with the U.S. economy."
“双方都希望这是对方在虚张声势，因为如果中美之间爆发贸易战争，后果将会是难以想象的”，Zakaria说，“我们需要中国继续对美国经济保持巨大的信心，不仅仅是购买美国国债，我们更需要他们在各个方面保持与美国经济的联系。”
Zakaria conducted a rare interview with China's prime minister, Wen Jiabao, his first with a Western journalist since a similar interview by Zakaria two years ago. The interview is being shown this weekend on Zakaria's Sunday show, "Fareed Zakaria GPS." The author and host spoke to CNN Thursday. Here is an edited transcript:
Zakaria日前刚刚对中国总理温家宝进行了一次难得的专访，两年前，Zakaria对他进行过一次类似的采访，那是温总理第一次接受西方记者的采访。这次专访会在本周日（10月3日）Zakaria的专题节目“Fareed Zakaria GPS”中播出。笔者在今天采访了主持人Zakaria，以下是经过编辑的谈话内容：
CNN: What are the chances that we'll see political reform in China?
CNN：在什么情况下我们才能看到中国所进行的政治改革？
Fareed Zakaria: The Chinese clearly feel that they need to open up but they don't quite know howand they don't know how to do it without letting go of their monopoly on power. .... They're very sure-footed now on economic power and economic reform, they really feel they have complete mastery over that area, but on political reform, they're very tentative.
Zakaria：中国人其实很明白他们需要开放，只是他们不太清楚应在何时和如何放弃对权力的垄断……如今他们在经济实力和经济改革方面的确非常稳健，这让他们感觉自己已经有足够的实力来掌控这片区域了，但是从政治改革方面来看，他们仍然处于初级阶段。
Wen Jiabao has been clearly somebody who's talked a lot about political reform for a long time. .... My own sense is that he is clearly of the mind to keep things moving in this direction but obviously there are other people who feel otherwise. It isn't clear to me that the forces of political reform are in the ascendancy in China. ...
温家宝总理与我聊了很多关于“政治体制改革”方面的问题……我个人的感觉是，他的头脑非常清醒地努力让事情朝着这个方向前进，但是显然有其他人不是这样想的，我不太清楚 “政治改革派”目前在中国是否处于优势地位……
CNN: What sense do you have of the current state of China's economic relationship with the United States?
CNN：你如何看待目前的中美经济关系？
Zakaria: Clearly the U.S. is pushing very hard on the issue of the Chinese currency and I think that a lot of it has to do with the realities of a bad economy here, coupled with a kind of sense that there are very few other levers that the U.S. has.
Zakaria：很显然，美国正在努力推动中国货币问题，我认为结合目前经济萎靡不振的实际情况，我们要做的事情还有很多，同时我感觉美国在这方面没有太多的应对之道。
So you're seeing a lot of rhetoric focused around Chinese currency and the fact that the House just passed this week a measure that would punish the Chinese for having artificially undervalued their currency.
所以你会看到很多关于中国货币的言论，还有就是众议院已对中国采取了惩罚措施，于本周一通过了“对低估本币汇率的国家征收特别关税”的法案。
The Chinese central bank has actually driven its currency even lower as a kind of response to all this.
中国央行对此的回应是继续推动人民币贬值。
Now the Obama administration has managed to maintain a pretty good overall relationship, and I think that the Chinese understand that some of this is pre-election politics, but I don't think its fundamentally good because these are the two biggest economies in the world and they should be trying to find a way to avoid getting into what appears to be the beginnings of a trade war.
现在，奥巴马政府设法和中国保持良好的整体关系，我认为中国也很清楚，有些只是奥巴马政府出于大选前的政治需要而已。这其实并不是什么好事，因为毕竟他们是全球最大的两个经济体，他们应当尝试着去寻找一种可以避免点燃两国贸易战争导火索的方法。
Remember the vast numbers of companies that are exporting from China that are American companies. The Chinese have opened up their economy to a huge number of American firms. ... Now this is all interdependence, no one is doing anyone a favor here.
要知道中国有很大数额的出口对象是美国公司，中国已经对诸多美国公司开放了市场……两者是相互依存的，不可能只让某一方受益。
CNN: What's the impact of an undervalued Chinese currency?
CNN：中国货币被低估会产生什么样的影响？
Zakaria: The Chinese benefit. We benefit enormously from having cheap Chinese goods. The big charge against the Chinese that is being made by Congress and even being made by the administration is that they are keeping their currency artificially low, and that favors Chinese manufacturers, that they have an unfair advantage to sell their goods more cheaply. OK, that's basically true.
Zakaria：当然会让中国受益了，而我们也会从廉价的中国商品中获益。目前国会和政府所强烈反对的就是中国人不断对人民币进行贬值，这有利于中国的制造商，使他们出售的商品更为便宜，从而产生不公平的竞争优势。这的确是存在的事实。
But one has to keep in mind two things. One is that a large number of those so-called Chinese manufacturers are actually American companies manufacturing out of China.
但是你要记住两件事情。第一是这些所谓的“中国制造商”实际上许多是美国公司在中国的生产厂家。
The second thing is that these Chinese goods that are now cheaper are bought by Americans and Americans benefit enormously from cheaper goods. The reason there is almost no inflation in America is largely due to cheap Chinese manufacturing. The reason that the Federal Reserve has been able to maintain interest rates so low without any fear of inflation is that they have China acting as a deflationary machine pushing down the price of manufactured goods, which has allowed the Federal Reserve to rescue the American economy by keeping rates so low even now.
第二是，购买这些便宜的中国商品会让美国人受益匪浅。由于廉价中国商品的进入，美国几乎没有出现通货膨胀现象。廉价的中国商品，压低了制成品的价格，美联储得以在没有任何通胀恐慌的情况下维持长期的低利率，从而在这种条件的前提下拯救美国经济，直到现在。
Americans get cheap mortgages for that reason, get cheap credit, get cheap interest rates for their credit cards. So it's not as if Americans don't benefit from the Chinese having the currency cheap.
出于这个原因，美国人能以低利率获得抵押贷款和信用卡。所以，实际情况并不是如所说的那样——人民币贬值越厉害，美国所受到的损失就越大。
In fact there are many economists who think we should send the Chinese a thank-you note for keeping the prices of our goods so low. ... I'm not sure I'd go so far but I'd say there are many, many benefits the Americans derive from having cheap Chinese goods.
事实上，有很多经济学家认为我们应该给中国人写封感谢信，感谢他们让我们的商品价格如此之低……虽然我倒没有这样想，但我还是要说，美国人从廉价的中国商品中获得了不少好处。
CNN: Do you think this is a relationship that can continue to exist or is it an imbalance that has to change at some point?
CNN：你觉得目前两国的这种关系是应该继续保持呢，还是由于不平衡现象而必须改变呢？
Zakaria: There's a structural problem, which is that the U.S. is the established superpower in the world, China is the rising power. Those kinds of relationships have often ended up badly. Think about Japan as it rose in the 1930s, think about Germany as it rose in the 1890s and 1920s, think about the Soviet Union.
Zakaria：这里存在一个结构性问题，那就是美国是世界上公认的超级大国，而中国是正在崛起的新生力量，两者之间的这种关系通常是不好处理的。比如20世纪30年代的日本，比如在19世纪90年代和20世纪20年代崛起的德国，还有当年的苏联。
But it doesn't always have to be that way, and today the world is so interdependent that it would be a catastrophe if the United States and China were to have a serious schism.
但事情并不总是这样，如今的世界非常需要各方能够相互依存，所以如果美国和中国出现了严重的决裂，这将是一场大灾难！
There are going to be these points of tension constantly, and the question is can we navigate those periods of tension and get over them ... for the last 10 or 15 years we have. The big shift that's taken place is that the Chinese are much more confident and much more powerful than they've ever been.
这方面的紧张态势正在日益升级，问题是我们如何来应对这段紧张的时期……就像过去10年或15年里我们经历过的那样。而目前最大的不同之处是——中国比过去更有信心，同时也更加强大！
CNN: How is that greater power being used?
CNN：这种强大的力量会产生什么样的影响呢？
Zakaria: Look at what happened with the Japanese. The Japanese had picked up a Chinese captain of a trawler who had wandered into what the Japanese regard as Japanese waters. They picked him up and arrested him. The Chinese demanded that they release him; the Japanese said no. But eventually the Japanese bowed to Chinese demands. Why? Because they sensed that the balance of power had shifted. It was only a few weeks earlier that the news came out that China had overtaken Japan as the second largest economy in the world.
Zakaria： 看看最近在日本发生的那些事吧。日本前不久以“擅入日本海域捕鱼”的名义逮捕了中国渔船船长，中方要求日方释放船长，日本人刚开始不答应，但最终还是屈服 于中国的要求。这是为什么呢？因为他们也知道力量的均势已经发生了变化。几个星期前的新闻报道说，中国已经超越日本成为仅次于美国的世界第二大经济体。
If you look at the way the Chinese stimulus has been so successful at restimulating the Chinese economy, which is now growing at 9 percent again, and you compare it to the fate of Western economies, you can understand why the Chinese are more confident, assertive and sure of themselves.
如果你看一下中国成功刺激经济发展的方法，又一次实现9%的经济增长率的事实，再对比下西方经济体的态势，你就会明白为什么如今的中国更加自信，对自己更加肯定了。
CNN: So if the relationship with China is helping the U.S. in the short term, is it causing long-term damage to the U.S. manufacturing base and the overall economy?
CNN：目前可以说中国在短期内会有益于美国，但是从长期来看，这种情况会不会对美国制造业的基础和整体经济造成损害呢？
Zakaria: I think that suggests that you have an alternative to being engaged with China. It's an open world economy. It's not just China that is manufacturing stuff, it's Vietnam, it's India, it's Brazil, it's Indonesia, it's all over the world. The way I would put it is that China represents a challenge to the United States. The best way to solve that challenge is for us to get our act together.
Zakaria：我觉得这也正说明了我们与中国进行合作是目前的一个选择。这是一个世界经济开放的年代，不仅只有中国在发展生产制造业，越南、印度、巴西、印尼等世界各地都在发展。我想指出的是，中国代表了这种向美国挑战的力量。而应对这一挑战的最好方法就是我们一起行动起来！
The real threat China poses is not a cheap currency. It's a competitive economy that is producing things at every level cheaper than we are, and the question is what should we be doing to be a competitive economy.
中国所构成的真正威胁其实并不是低值的货币，而是它的“竞争性经济”。在所有的领域里，他们都能生产出比我们更便宜的东西。所以目前的问题是，在竞争性经济环境里，我们如何才能做得更好。
While we do many things very well ... we have lost too much manufacturing capacity in America. We could revive it. Look at Germany, a case of a very high wage economy that still has maintained a manufacturing capacity, but they didn't do that by isolating themselves from the world economy.
虽然我们在许多事情上做得很好……但是我们已经失去了太多属于自己的制造能力，不过我们是可以恢复过来的。以德国为例，虽然是“高工资”的经济环境，但仍然保持了很强的制造能力，而且他们也并没有在做到这点的同时，把自己孤立于世界经济之外。
To the contrary, Germany is a huge trading nation. They've gotten their act together, they've gotten their workers better training, they've gotten their manufacturing to be more high end and more complex, so what they make is more in the BMW model, highly skilled, complex engineering, putting out premium products and commanding premium prices, which allows you to have a high wage structure.
相反，德国是一个非常巨大的贸易国。他们行动一致，他们的员工能得到更好的培训，他们的工厂可以生产出更尖端更复杂的产品，所以他们所生产出的宝马车型更多、技术更精、工艺更复杂，优质的产品自然对应昂贵的价格，也使德国拥有极高的工资结构。
We've done that in some areas ... but by and large we've let manufacturing erode. But that's not China's fault, that's our fault.
这一点我们的一些地区里已经做到了……但总体来说，我们的制造业已经大大被削弱了。但这不是中国的错，而是我们自己的错。
CNN: Is the Obama administration taking the right approach in dealing with China?
CNN：你认为奥巴马政府与中国打交道的方式合适吗？
Zakaria: I think the Obama people have been very serious about the Chinese relationship. They approached it from the start as a major strategic partnership.
Zakaria：我认为奥巴马政府一直非常重视与中国的关系，并将其作为一项主要的战略伙伴关系来对待。
I think you can't really fault the Obama administration for some of the friction, some of it is congressional short-term re-election stuff. Some of it frankly is that the Chinese have been somewhat unpredictable in their responses. They dis-invited [Defense] Secretary Gates from visiting China, which seemed a bad idea, because the one thing you do want to maintain is constant contact and collaboration between these two countries.
我觉得你不能责怪奥巴马政府和国会为了短期内的选举而造成的一些摩擦。坦白地说，我觉得中国政府的反应倒是有些让人看不明白。比如他们拒绝了国防部长盖 茨访问中国的邀请，这貌似可不是一个好主意，因为在做每件事情的时候，都应该考虑到要保持两个国家的不间断接触与合作。
The Chinese military clearly wanted to send some kind of a signal and withdrew an invitation, which has now been re-extended ... the Chinese are engaging in somewhat unpredictable behavior, which is unfortunate, but I think it reflects their growing pains as a great power.
中国军方显然想借“撤回邀请”发出一些信号，但这件事现在却被扩大化了……中国人做事的行为特点有时候让人捉摸不透，这其实并不好，不过我认为这也正反映了大国成长之痛。
CNN: What's driving that unpredictable behavior?
CNN：是什么导致了这种无法捉摸的行为呢？
Zakaria: They're becoming more assertive, they're getting more arrogant, which is natural given their success and their size, but I don't think they're becoming more threatening. I think the problem is that they haven't figured out what their national interests are, what kind of a great power do they want to be in the world.
Zakaria：他们变得越来越自信，同时也越来越自负，这对与他们的成功和规模来说是非常自然的，但我不认为他们会变得更具威胁性。我觉得目前的问题是，他们还没有弄明白他们的国家利益究竟是什么，他们希望在这个世界上获得哪种强大的权力。
What are their broader interests with regard to nuclear nonproliferation, with regard to the Middle East? I don't think they've thought that through. Twenty years ago, they were a struggling Third World nation that never thought about any of that stuff; now they have to have a foreign policy for everything.
防止核扩散、中东等问题对他们有什么更广泛的利益？我认为他们还没有考虑清楚。二十年前，一个挣扎着的“第三世界国家”从未考虑过的方方面面，现在必须有一套能够面面俱到的外交政策了！
