本•伯南克本周向国会提交的证据对一般储户来说是个扫兴的消息。由于经济疲弱,利率看似在未来一段时间继续保持低水平,何时走出低谷遥遥无期。
But here's some better news: For those hunting for income, a surprising number of blue-chip stocks now offer better yields than Treasury bonds or the bank.
但是不光只有坏消息:绩优股大增,让人眼花缭乱,对那些追求收益的人来说,这会使他们得到比国债与存款多得多的收益。
"Financial conditions," said the Federal Reserve chairman, "have become less supportive of economic growth in recent months" and a majority of the Federal Reserve board sees "the risks to growth as weighted to the downside." Two reasons he cited were the financial crisis in Europe and the continuing burden of bad debts here in the U.S. As a result, he said, the Fed has actually turned even more gloomy on jobs in the last couple of months. Meanwhile, it has become less concerned about inflation.
美 联储主席说:“最近几个月,我们的经济状况越来越难以推动经济增长,”而且美国联邦储备委员会的大多数人都认识到,增长有下滑的危险。他谈到两个原因,其 一是欧洲出现的金融危机,其次是美国坏账的负担仍未减轻。结果就是——他说——美联储完全被过去两个月的就业情况搞得更是愁眉不展。而同时顾不上担忧通 胀。
Bottom line? The Fed, said Mr. Bernanke, "continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal-funds rate for an extended period."
底线?伯南克先生说,美联储“预计未来经济状况在相当长的时期内,联邦基金利率额有可能继续保持在极低的水平。”
Bond markets took their cue. The yield on the five-year Treasury bond tumbled below 1.7%. The two-year note is down to barely half a percent. The 10-year fell below 3%. These are historic lows. They have plummeted in recent months, as markets have become more gloomy about the economy and consumer price inflation has slid toward 0%.
债券市场就对这些信号做出反应。5年期国债收益率下跌到1.7%以下,两年期国债下跌不到0.5个百分点,十年期的下跌到3%以下。这些都是历史最低水平。由于市场对经济更加悲观,消费物价通胀指数下滑接近于零,债券收益最近几月暴跌。
As recently as a couple of years ago, the typical yield on the five-year bond was around 4%.
就在两个月之前,5年期债券还是大约4%。
Certificate-of-deposit rates are following suit. The interest rate on a one-month CD is just 0.28%, near the levels seen, briefly, in the depths of the 2008 panic. Bankrate.com says you can get 1.5% or so if you agree to lock up your money in a CD for a year.
定期存款利率(Certificate-of-deposit rates)也未逃出劫数。一个月的定期存款利率只有0.28%,与2008年经济震荡时的利率差不多。 Bankrate.com说,要是你把钱定期存上一年,就会得到1.5%左右的收益。
In high finance, the technical terms for these types of rates are bupkis, zip and squat.
在巨额融资中,这几种利率的专业术语就是零、零、零( bupkis, zip and squat)。
What's a saver to do? You can hunker down and take it. You can seek higher yields among corporate bonds and tax-free municipals, which involve varying degrees of extra risk.
一个储户又能做什么呢?你完全可以继续跟进,坐收渔利。在公司债券与市政免税债券中可以寻求高收益,只是要额外承担不同程度的风险。
One alternative worth considering for at least some of your stash: Blue-chip stocks—especially those that combine high dividend yields with strong balance sheets and cash flow.
至少可以投点钱的另一个值得考虑的选择就是:绩优股——尤其是那些融合高股息收益率与强劲资产负债表与现金流为一体的股票。
To find candidates, I ran a screen using FactSet, a financial-data service. I looked for stocks with a dividend yield of 2.9%, the current 10-year Treasury rate, or higher. I also looked to exclude stocks that might be particularly risky. So I screened out those stocks whose share price was greater than 15 times likely earnings for the upcoming year. I screened out companies whose debt levels were equal to more than half their assets. And I screened out companies whose earnings before interest and taxes were less than three times their annual interest expense.
为 了找到合适的投资品,我使用金融数据服务公司FactSet的数据来进行甄选。我找出股息收益率为2.9%或更高的股票,这也是10年期国债的利率。我同 时剔除掉潜在风险极大的股票,未来一年内股价高于15倍可能收益的股票和债务级别高于资产一半的公司,以及息前与税前收益少于年利息支出三倍的公司。
Nearly 50 companies passed. And a fair number are in industries that have typically been less volatile, including consumer staples, pharmaceuticals, energy and utilities. On your kitchen table, Kraft Foods Inc. (NYSE: KFT - News) and H.J. Heinz Co. (NYSE: HNZ - News) both yield 4%, General Mills Inc. (NYSE: GIS - News) 3.3%, Kellogg Co. (NYSE: K - News) and Campbell Soup Co. (NYSE: CPB - News) 3%. In your medicine cabinet, Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE: LLY - News) yields 5.5%, Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE - News) 5.2%, Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (NYSE: BMY - News) 5.1%, and Merck & Co. (NYSE: MRK - News) 4.3%. At the gas station, ConocoPhillips pays (NYSE: COP - News) 4%, Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX - News) 3.8% and Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM - News) 2.9%. Among the utilities, Consolidated Edison Inc. (NYSE: ED - News)pays 5.2%, American Electric Power Co.(NYSE: AEP - News) 4.6%, PG&E Corp. (NYSE: PCG - News) 4.1%.
经 过筛选,挑出将近50家公司。相当多的都是在波动不太大的产业当中,其中包括日用消费品,制药,能源以及公用设施领域。食品行业包括卡夫,亨氏公司,通用 面粉;药品行业包括礼来公司,辉瑞公司,施贵宝公司和默克公司;能源领域包括康菲石油,雪佛龙石油和埃克森美孚公司;公用设施领域包括联合爱迪生公司,美 国电力公司以及太平洋煤气电力。
Other notable yields include telecom companies like Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ - News) (7.2%), tobacco stocks such as Altria Group Inc. (NYSE: MO - News) (6.5%), retailer Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD - News) (3.4%) and Kleenex maker Kimberly-Clark Corp. (NYSE: KMB - News) (4.2%).
其他收益率值得关注的公司还有像威利讯通讯公司这样的电信公司,烟草股票高特力集团,零售商家得宝以及面巾纸制造商金佰利。
Earlier this week legendary fund manager Jeremy Grantham, chairman of Boston fund firm GMO LLC, reiterated his stance that "high quality" U.S. blue chips were by far the best value-investment opportunity around.
本周早些时候,转基因生物有限责任公司主席传奇基金经理人杰瑞米•格兰森(Jeremy Grantham)一再强调,迄今为止美国“高回报”绩优股是最佳价值投资机会。
Eight of his 10 favorite picks sport dividend yields better than the 10-year Treasury, according to FactSet: Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ - News) (3.8%), Coca-Cola Co. (NYSE: KO - News) (3.3%), PepsiCo Inc. (NYSE: PEP - News) (3%) and Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG - News) (3.1%), as well as Pfizer, Merck, Chevron and Exxon Mobil (mentioned above).
根据FactSet的数据,他的10项最佳选择中,其中八项的股息利率要高于10年期国债:依次为强生公司,可口可乐,百事,保洁公司,以及上面提到的辉瑞,默克,雪佛龙以及埃克森美孚公司。
For any investor, the usual caveats apply. Stocks do not come with guarantees. Prices fluctuate, earnings can fall, dividends can be cut. On the other hand, earnings and dividends can and often do rise as well. And dividend income—at least currently—is taxed more lightly than bond or bank interest. (How the tax treatment will change after the end of this year remains to be seen.)
对于任何投资者来说,都不要忘了风险。股票从来不会保证收益。价格会波动,收益会降低,股息会减少。另一方面,收益与股息也会上升。至少在目前股息收益的税收要比债券以及银行利息低。(今年底课税政策如何调整有待观望。)
Mr. Grantham continues to wonder why top-quality names sell so cheaply. I have a theory: The kind of people who typically buy these kinds of shares—widows, orphans and the like—have simply walked away from the stock market in disgust altogether. They're buying bonds instead. That may be creating an opportunity.
格兰森先生仍旧不明白为什么高收益股票为什么还卖得这么低。我的解释就是:一般买这些股票的人——寡妇,孤儿这类人——早就一起愤愤然远离了股市,而去购买债券了。那或许就是缘由所在,也就创造了机会。